Beyond S&D: Money Flows, Black Sea Risks and Durum Quality

Dave Whitcomb, Head of Research at Peak Trading Research, explored the growing influence of financial capital on agricultural commodity markets, demonstrating how currency movements, energy prices and speculative positioning can amplify price swings. He highlighted how a weaker US dollar and higher crude oil prices generally support agricultural markets, while a stronger dollar tends to weigh on them.

Whitcomb also pointed to a significant shift from 2025, when commodities were largely “cheap and oversold,” to 2026, when many have moved into “expensive and overbought” territory. With investment funds heavily positioned on the long side, a loss of confidence could trigger rapid selling and sharp price corrections. While historical seasonal patterns generally favour agricultural markets in the final quarter, wheat remains a notable exception. He also highlighted the importance of watching trend-following CTAs, whose trading activity can push prices well beyond levels justified by market fundamentals alone.

​​​​​​​Pierre Cera-Huelva, Head of EU and Black Sea Crops at S&P Global Energy, presented a global corn market that remains broadly well supplied despite growing regional disparities. Comfortable US stocks are adding pressure, while a strong El Niño poses risks to Brazil's second corn crop but could favour Argentina, where production is projected at 65 million tonnes. He also highlighted expected weaker feed demand in the EU and uncertainty surrounding Chinese imports, although higher energy prices could provide additional support to grain markets.

Turning to wheat, Cera-Huelva highlighted a disconnect between comfortable global supplies and actual export availability. Ongoing Black Sea disruptions are restricting shipments from Russia and Ukraine, creating opportunities for alternative origins and supporting international prices. Under S&P Global's base-case scenario, Black Sea trade gradually resumes in January, but prolonged disruptions could also threaten next season's plantings and production. Against this backdrop, S&P Global forecasts Euronext wheat prices averaging €248/t in 2026/27, up 24% year on year, with logistics, weather and geopolitical risks remaining central to the outlook.

Rossella Polito, durum wheat market analyst at Black Silo, highlighted a growing disconnect between abundant global durum supplies and the availability of high-quality grain. While global production is estimated at 38.6 million tonnes in 2026/27 and ending stocks are rebuilding, quality problems across several major origins are creating shortages of high-protein durum. She pointed to poor quality in parts of Southern Europe and North Africa, alongside concerns over Canada's harvest following heavy September rains. Meanwhile, EU production is estimated 11% lower year on year, reflecting a broader shift in durum cultivation away from traditional Western European producers.

Polito also highlighted new opportunities for Eastern European exporters, including Bulgaria, where production is estimated at 240,000 tonnes, up 36% year on year. Disruptions to Russian and Kazakh export routes could favour alternative suppliers, particularly those able to meet strict quality requirements. However, she cautioned that a normalization of Black Sea logistics could quickly change the market picture. Despite recent price gains, durum remains insufficiently profitable for many Western European farmers, raising the risk of further reductions in planted area next season.

The three presentations highlighted how financial flows, geopolitical risks and grain quality are increasingly influencing agricultural markets alongside traditional supply and demand fundamentals. More highlights from Grain Academy 2026 will follow, with upcoming articles covering the Bulgarian and Balkan panels and their perspectives on regional grain and oilseed markets.