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Sofia, 22 October 2026 | #GrainAcademy2026
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The second panel of Grain Academy 2026 brought together five very different grain markets, but the message running through the discussion was remarkably consistent. Production and price still matter, but competitiveness is increasingly determined by whether grain can move, whether delivery can be trusted and whether companies have an alternative when the usual route, origin or counterparty becomes unavailable.
Stoyan Valev placed Bulgaria's strong 2026 grain balance against a far more uncertain geopolitical backdrop. With wheat production estimated at around 7.8 million tonnes and roughly 4 million tonnes still potentially exportable at the time of the conference, Bulgaria entered the season with substantial volumes available for the international market. Around half of the wheat, however, was feed quality, while the market was already facing sharply higher transport costs, wagon shortages, difficult Danube navigation and growing counterparty and geopolitical risks.
Disruptions elsewhere in the Black Sea have strengthened Bulgaria's strategic position and its ability to offer relatively secure and timely execution. Yet Valev stressed that this advantage remains closely tied to maritime security.
His base scenario assigned a 50% probability to continuation of the current environment, with active demand and functioning logistics through to the 2027 harvest. More strikingly, he gave a 40% probability to attacks on vessels in Bulgarian waters or ships carrying Bulgarian cargo, a scenario that could sharply increase freight and insurance costs, make vessels harder to secure and reduce export volumes.
Difficult Danube conditions have already delayed more than 500,000 tonnes of shipments. Valev's final message was nevertheless pragmatic: agricultural trade has survived much greater geopolitical shocks before, and companies must again learn to operate in a world where political and security risk are part of everyday business.
Begum Dak Sever focused on a structural shift in the Turkish wheat market. Türkiye enters 2026/27 with wheat production estimated at 24.5 million tonnes, sharply above 17.9 million tonnes a season earlier, while imports are projected to fall from 5.9 million to around 2 million tonnes. Ending stocks could rise from 2.8 million to 4 million tonnes.
Behind that change stands not only a larger crop, but also a much stronger role for the Turkish Grain Board. TMO procurement reached 7.3 million tonnes in 2026, following 6.9 million tonnes in 2025 and 3 million tonnes in 2024. Domestic procurement, pricing policy and import restrictions are therefore increasingly important in determining when and how Türkiye returns to international wheat buying.
Türkiye remains the world's leading wheat flour exporter, but its position is being challenged. Flour exports fell from 3.66 million tonnes in 2023 to 2.36 million tonnes in 2025, while January to September 2026 shipments were another 15.3% lower year on year. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have meanwhile expanded their presence, while Turkish flour exports to Iraq fell by 66% year on year in the first nine months of 2026 and shipments to Syria declined by 17%.
Stronger domestic production, larger stocks, an active TMO and increasing competition in flour exports suggest that Türkiye's role in regional wheat trade is entering a different phase, with import demand becoming increasingly dependent on domestic supply and government policy.
Marko Slijepčević presented Serbia as perhaps the clearest example of how logistical diversification can protect a grain market when a major transport route becomes unreliable.
The country exports an average of around 3.2 million tonnes of grain annually through three principal channels: the Danube towards Constanța, road trade with neighbouring Balkan markets and rail exports towards Italy. The Danube channel has averaged roughly 1.04 million tonnes of wheat and corn, regional road trade around 725,000 tonnes and Italy about 608,000 tonnes.
That diversification became crucial in 2026. Low water levels reduced normal barge cargo capacity to around 30% to 40% for weeks from July onward, sharply increasing river freight.
Yet, as Marko showed, Serbian wheat exports did not collapse. From July through September 2026, shipments reached 308,000 tonnes, only slightly below 313,000 tonnes a year earlier. Instead, the destination mix changed: Italy increased its share of Serbian wheat exports to 43%, compared with a 34% average in 2021-2025, while Bosnia's share rose to 16% from an average of 10%.
Corn tells a different story. Exports through the Danube and Constanța were down 97% compared with the 2021-2025 average and shipments to Italy were down 94%, but Marko linked this primarily to the drought-hit 2024 and 2025 crops rather than the river itself. Bosnia now accounts for around 42% of Serbian corn exports.
His broader message was straightforward: Serbia fills regional gaps because it does not depend on one route alone. Reliability comes from having several workable alternatives before disruption arrives.
Apostolos Anthomelidis approached the market as both a trader and a processor that must secure raw materials throughout the year. Greek grain production is seasonal and variable, while industrial consumption continues every day, making imports a structural part of balancing volume, quality and timing.
Total animal-feed and raw-material requirements were estimated at 3.37 million tonnes in 2025, of which the compound feed industry accounted for 1.776 million tonnes. Greece produced around 1.15 million tonnes of wheat but imported approximately 1.21 million tonnes, leaving wheat self-sufficiency at just 48.8%. Corn production reached 1.3 million tonnes against imports of 795,000 tonnes, for self-sufficiency of 62.1%, while barley stood at 67.5%.
This means processors cannot evaluate an origin solely through its FOB price. Bulgaria provides nearby regional supply, Romania another important alternative and Ukraine potentially competitive Black Sea volumes, while other EU origins and South America broaden the sourcing base. Quality consistency, logistics capacity, execution reliability and the ability to respond quickly to unexpected demand increasingly determine which origin is genuinely competitive.
For Anthomelidis, the trader and processor perspectives ultimately meet in the same place: diversified origins, flexible logistics and inventory planning. Flexibility is no longer simply a way to improve margins, but part of supply security itself.
Leonardo Lambrea continued the regional picture by asking whether Romania's position as one of the Black Sea's most important grain origins and logistical hubs is creating enough value to remain sustainable.
Romania's 2026 harvest was particularly strong, with wheat production estimated at 13.5 million tonnes, barley at 3.5 million tonnes, rapeseed at 3.6 million tonnes and sunflower at around 2.7 million tonnes. Corn remained the exception, with only around 1.6 million hectares planted compared with a historical reference of 2.6 million hectares and production estimated at 7.8 to 8 million tonnes.
Volume, however, does not automatically translate into value. Only around 55% of Romania's 2026 wheat was estimated to be milling quality, compared with approximately 85% a year earlier, while feed wheat was trading around €20/t below milling wheat in Constanța. In 2025/26, Romania exported 15.25 million tonnes across five major crops, showing the scale of the country's export system but not necessarily the profitability behind those volumes.
Logistics and financing add further pressure. Low Danube levels pushed freight from the Ukrainian Danube ports to Constanța to around €62-65/t, while rail from Vadu Siret to Constanța was estimated at €40/t. At farm level, borrowing costs were around 12% from banks, 15-17% from non-bank lenders and 17-19% through supplier credit.
The discussion became more pointed during questions from the audience about trust and financial reliability within Romanian agribusiness. Lambrea acknowledged broader problems in a sector where delayed payments can transfer pressure across traders, suppliers and other counterparties.
He also referred to companies looking to limit their exposure to Romania, recover as much as possible from existing positions and ultimately leave the market. In that context, Lambrea pointed specifically to Cargill, where he previously worked, and its earlier decision to reduce its presence in Romania. His point was that the behaviour of a global commodity company with more than a century of experience should be taken seriously when assessing market risk.
The discussion brought the panel back to its wider theme: in the Black Sea and Balkan grain markets, competitiveness increasingly depends not only on tonnes and prices, but on reliable execution, alternative routes, secure supply and the ability to manage risk when conditions change.
Reliability itself is becoming part of the price.
